Purpose
This site acts as an aggregator of aggregators. The idea is that an average of averages can be more useful than relying on one polling average alone.
Instead of using only one source, the tracker compares several polling averages to get a broader view of the national political environment while also showing my personal algorithm adjustment where it applies.
Sources
The tracker compares national averages from sources such as VoteHub, Silver Bulletin, The New York Times, CNN, Race to WH, and FiftyPlusOne.
Average of averages
The current average gives each usable source equal weight. Sources without an available average are listed for reference, but they are not included in the calculation until a usable value is available.
Current calculations
The generic ballot average currently uses VoteHub, Silver Bulletin, CNN, Race to WH, and FiftyPlusOne. The New York Times is unavailable for the generic ballot because there is no usable national generic ballot average available from that source.
The generic ballot is also modified by my algorithm in an attempt to better account for polling errors.
The Trump approval average currently uses The New York Times, Silver Bulletin, CNN, VoteHub, Race to WH, and FiftyPlusOne.
Algorithm adjustment
The generic ballot page includes an optional adjustment based on my algorithm. The main reason for this is that in past elections, polling averages have sometimes missed the final result.
I added an adjustment from my own math to try to make the final estimate more accurate. In my back-testing, this adjustment helped match the results of the 2022 and 2024 elections more closely than some unadjusted averages.